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Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much?

Financial crises are born out of prolonged credit booms and depressed productivity.

At times, they are initiated by relatively small shocks.

During such episodes, intermediaries expand their lending and leverage, thereby building up financial fragility.

Crises are generally initiated by a moderate adverse shock that puts pressure on intermediaries’ balance sheets, triggering a creditor run, a contraction in new lending, and ultimately a deep and persistent recession.

Analysis of these networks allows us to identify time periods of increased risk concentration in the banking sector and determine which firms pose high systemic risk.

Our results illustrate the efficacy of such modeling techniques for monitoring and potentially enhancing national financial stability.

The annual data on total returns for equity, housing, bonds, and bills cover 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015, and our new evidence reveals many new insights and puzzles.